Saturday, March 7, 2009

An Economic Solution That Would Work

I firmly believe the administration has overlooked the one policy that could turn the hosing market around, stanching many foreclosures and raising the value of the now "toxic" mortgage assets, thereby saving the banks. It is simple (even Cramer has advocated it): Give Fannie and Freddie the financial backing to underwrite mortgages on real property at 4% for 40 years. Open this to everyone who can put down 15%; and add a tax credit for all who buy homes over the next 18 months.

Anyone with brains and the capacity to come up with 15% would be rushing to buy homes tomorrow. I would see that I and all my kids did so. Home values would start rising sharply, encouraging those with mortgages that have put their homes under water to hang on; causing banks to write UP the value of mortgage assets they hold and thereby enabling them to loan capital again; creating a vast buyers market for homes and for all the accessories that go with them.

This goes to the very heart of the problem; and it is fair because it would be open to everyone. And it requires no new government bureaucrats to step into this mess and assess losses. Perhaps this approach is being ignored because of its directness and simplicity. But until we find a "floor" for the losses of housing values, no real solution is in sight.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Crisis and Oportunity in the Gazan Tragedy

The Nub of the Gaza/Israeli Conflict



After a week of listening to the usual pundits discussing everything but the central issue in this conflict, I feel compelled to stress the issue which will determine the future of Gaza and its relations with Israel. This is the brutal fact that Hamas has dedicated itself, in writing and policies, to the destruction of Israel and the removal of all Jews from their Palestine, which includes all of Israel.



So long as Hamas maintains the policy of no negotiations (direct), and no compromise or recognition of Israel and its right to exist, there can never be peace with a Hamas-led Gaza.



How come there are no missiles, and virtually no suicide bombers or other conflict on the West Bank/Israel border? Simply because that area is controlled by the PLA, which has embraced the notion of a two state solution, living in peace, and is negotiating the details. This is the only possible approach to the conflict, short of one side annihilating and occupying the other.



Unfortunately, except for a few Fox commentators, those reporting and commenting on the current warfare ignore this reality, most of them happy with reporting on the casualties, the gore, and the "feelings" of those affected or concerned.



So why is Hamas so bent on the destruction of Israel, even if that policy means years of suffering, poverty and sacrifice for the Gazan people? One of the most cogent answers to this comes from Ziad Asali, of The American Task Force for Palestine, An American of Palestinian origins, he points to the fact that Hamas represents for Iran the one wedge it has into the Sunni Arab population, and is the only Sunni-based force that has thrown in its lot with Iran's announced plans not only to destroy Israel, but to replace the current Sunni regimes in the area with one Islamic state. (Hezbollah in Lebanon are exclusively Shiites)



This is why Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, while trying to stop the current violence, are extremely critical of Hamas for its recent actions. But for Hamas and Iran, making the Sunni Arab population disgusted with seeing Palestinian casualties, and ready to rally around Hamas, is the true objective of this struggle.



In short, the wages of this war for Hamas are the number of dead and injured Palestinian women and children they can produce from Israel's actions. And the more the better! The more CNN's uninformed commentators wring their hands over casualties, and the more the Arab press and TV stations picture dead and wounded Palestinians, the better off is their over-arching struggle to bring down not just Israel, but all the moderate Arab regimes.



At least this time, some newspapers and columnists in Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia recognize this game being waged for Iranian goals, and are resisting. Most disconcerting , however, is the ignorance of so many of our own and BBC commentators, who will not even mention Hamas' central , rejectionist policies, while excoriating Israel for taking steps to stop the bombing of their civilians in three major cities, and the entire Southern Negev region.



Is There A Possible Solution?





Is there anything that can be done at this stage, which will break the deadly, downward spiral of events in Gaza? The one step that might work would be to have the moderate Arab states (Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia) put the strongest possible pressure on Hamas to break with Iran and change their charter to permit negotiations with and the recognition of Israel. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states could promise the funding for an economic renaissance in Gaza in return for breaking with Iran, Hamas' current banker.

I don't know if this will work; but it must be attempted, with the USA promising Hamas recognition and international status for abandoning their rejectionist policies.

In the short run, pressures from the USA and international community will soon establish a temporary cease fire. But the Israelis will very likely remain positioned in Gaza, shutting off Gaza City from their tunnels on the border, and preventing a resurgence of violence. Hamas will have the choice to attack, and lose badly; or to come to some more permanent arrangement; or to become defenseless.

This is the point at which a strong diplomatic effort might work to have Hamas shift their philosophy, strategies and allegiances to something that promises a peaceful and prosperous existence, and a reunified Palestine. And this might be the moment and the opportunity for President Obama to make his power and prestige felt at home and abroad, consistent with the solid backing of Israel he has promised.

But only the combined and forceful persuasion of the Sunni Arab regimes, aimed at bringing Hamas out of the Iranian's hands and into the moderate camp, can exert the pressure and the promise that might move Hamas leaders to a major change of heart.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Obama's Victory: The Meaning and The Hope

OBAMA VICTORY ENHANCES INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL PERCEPTIONS OF AMERICA

by Forrest Broman

The November 4th victory of President-Elect Barack Hussein Obama will stand as a major historical event in this century. Despite the fears of many that a racial backlash would derail his quest for the White House, Americans voted for him by the overwhelming margin of 53%, to 46% for his popular opponent, Senator McCain.

Whatever their political preferences, most Americans appreciate and applaud the fact that a gifted, intelligent Black American could be elected to the nation's highest office. In a November 5th Gallup Poll, 67% of Americans were both "proud" and "optimistic" about the election of Obama, revealing the belief that this step reaffirms the nation's adherence to its highest ideals. Both Senator McCain and President Bush expressed their sincere appreciation of this aspect of the election.

This election represents a watershed in American History, leaving behind 400 years of racism that not only prevented the progress of Black Americans, but that deprived them of basic rights such as voting freely until 1965. Working in anti-poverty programs in the Sixties, I recall how most educated and intelligent Black men could not get a white collar job, outside of the government programs spawned by that era. One also remembers that during WW 2, Blacks fought for their country in segregated units, a policy that was ended by President Eisenhower only in the early Fifties.

For non-Americans this event also resonates with enthusiasm and excitement. As noted by the British historian, Tristram Hunt: "Obama's election the narrative that everyone wants to return to-that America is the land of extraordinary opportunity and possibility, where miracles happen." Perhaps we will witness a new page as well in the perception of America as a nation that embraces its ideals and still has the capacity to be the beacon of the free world.

One fears, of course, that expectations are running so high for immediate economic and political solutions to the world's current, dire problems, that disappointment is inevitable. But rejoice we must, for the reaffirmation of America as a nation that welcomes and embraces those of every race and religion who want to share in the ideals of equality, freedom and the opportunity too realize their inherent talents.

Why Obama? A Personal Confession

Sent: Sun, 2 Nov 2008 6:13 am
Subject: Inspiring !!

Paul You will have to forgive me this: I believe Obama has the intelligence, skills and values to be a different and great leader of our nation. But I am also emotionally overwhelmed by the possibility that Americans might elect a Black man as their President: something I never expected to see in my lifetime. This makes an Obama victory into one of the happiest and most inspiring days of my life! For Americans to do this in the face of 400 years of outrageous and destructive racism against Black folks, restores and renews my faith in our people and our nation. And all the nations of the world will be astounded. Even though you prefer McCain, I hope you will share in the pride of seeing so many Americans turning their backs on a racist past!

Your Buddy Forrest

Monday, September 22, 2008

Whose Sky is Falling In?

OR, Should the Panic of Henry Paulson be the Panic of the Nation?

Something strange is going on when, a few short days after nationalizing Fannie and Freddie, and bailing out AIG, Henry Paulson found it necessary to tell the nations' political leaders that our entire financial and economic system is about to collapse.

But a quick look at what happened that very day to Goldman Sacks stock prices clears up the mystery. As hedge funds discovered that the much vaunted Goldman was also hiding nearly worthless derivatives and packaged mortgages, they drove the price of GS down from 145 to 103. The same day the administration banned selling short financial shares like GS, and Henry took his case to the assembled US leaders that the sky is falling in, and only giving him a trillion dollars to save his old firm and others like it can prevent a national collapse.

At least one Wall Street Journal writer has pointed out that this is a huge SCAM. Henry Paulson was running Goldman when they dug themselves in the same hole as Lehman Brothers. The near or actual collapse of Goldman would be a catastrophic embarrassment to Paulson and the President, and a colossal erosion of confidence in the ability of this administration to deal effectively with our real economic challenges. It is not a huge threat to this nation's economy.

The crisis is really one for Paulson, GS and the other reckless investment banks. There is no dire crisis in our other markets or the economy, other than for mortgage holders who can't meet their payments (and for whom no help whatsoever is being offered by Paulson). Walmart, Home Depot and my supermarket are crowded; our 6.1% unemployment rate is hardly catastrophic; and the stock market fell more in all three crises since 1930, than it has this year.

Folks, we are being asked to pony up a trillion dollars in more national debt, for Paulson to bail his own firm and those of his cronies. Not to save the nation, but to save them from further harm and ridicule. If we do this, Goldman's young employees will still get their $500,000 to $2,000,000 bonuses this Christmas; but GM and Ford will never be given a nickel to save an auto workers job that is threatened right now.

And we, the taxpayers, will be saddling ourselves and our grandchildren with a national debt that will reduce this country to a second rate power and lead to a fiscal disaster in record time. If we are so reckless with our nation's money and credit, why would the nations of the world even continue to use the dollar for most international transactions?

Fortunately, many leading Republicans and financial analysts see the "Paulson Gambit" for what it is. One only hopes that a spineless Democratic leadership will not be stampeded into agreement by Paulson's rant. If he is so brilliant as to predict a looming disaster, where has he been all year through this growing crisis?

Please correct me if I am missing something here; or use this to help others consider what is really going on in America this week.

Whose Sky is Falling In?

OR, Should the Panic of Henry Paulson be the Panic of the Nation?

Something strange is going on when, a few short days after nationalizing Fannie and Freddie, and bailing out AIG, Henry Paulson found it necessary to tell the nations' political leaders that our entire financial and economic system is about to collapse.

But a quick look at what happened that very day to Goldman Sacks stock prices clears up the mystery. As hedge funds discovered that the much vaunted Goldman was also hiding nearly worthless derivatives and packaged mortgages, they drove the price of GS down from 145 to 103. The same day the administration banned selling short financial shares like GS, and Henry took his case to the assembled US leaders that the sky is falling in, and only giving him a trillion dollars to save his old firm and others like it can prevent a national collapse.

At least one Wall Street Journal writer has pointed out that this is a huge SCAM. Henry Paulson was running Goldman when they dug themselves in the same hole as Lehman Brothers. The near or actual collapse of Goldman would be a catastrophic embarrassment to Paulson and the President, and a colossal erosion of confidence in the ability of this administration to deal effectively with our real economic challenges. It is not a huge threat to this nation's economy.

The crisis is really one for Paulson, GS and the other reckless investment banks. There is no dire crisis in our other markets or the economy, other than for mortgage holders who can't meet their payments (and for whom no help whatsoever is being offered by Paulson). Walmart, Home Depot and my supermarket are crowded; our 6.1% unemployment rate is hardly catastrophic; and the stock market fell more in all three crises since 1930, than it has this year.

Folks, we are being asked to pony up a trillion dollars in more national debt, for Paulson to bail his own firm and those of his cronies. Not to save the nation, but to save them from further harm and ridicule. If we do this, Goldman's young employees will still get their $500,000 to $2,000,000 bonuses this Christmas; but GM and Ford will never be given a nickel to save an auto workers job that is threatened right now.

And we, the taxpayers, will be saddling ourselves and our grandchildren with a national debt that will reduce this country to a second rate power and lead to a fiscal disaster in record time. If we are so reckless with our nation's money and credit, why would the nations of the world even continue to use the dollar for most international transactions?

Fortunately, many leading Republicans and financial analysts see the "Paulson Gambit" for what it is. One only hopes that a spineless Democratic leadership will not be stampeded into agreement by Paulson's rant. If he is so brilliant as to predict a looming disaster, where has he been all year through this growing crisis?

Please correct me if I am missing something here; or use this to help others consider what is really going on in America this week.

Sunday, May 18, 2008

The Primaries Are Over; Obama is The Candidate

Thankfully, Obama's choice as the Democratic nominee for President is now a foregone conclusion. The burning question now is whether Hillary will make a graceful exit by June 3, one calculated to enable her fiercely loyal supporters (poorer Whites and elderly women) to at least vote for Obama rather than McCain. Those who distrust the Clintons and see them mostly as a self-interest political couple bent on reliving their White House years, fear that Hillary will try passively or covertly to undermine Obama, setting McCain up for a 2008 win, and her for a 2012 comeback.

The optimists among us believe that she will, as she had said: "Work tirelessly for a victory for the party's anointed candidate."

The outcome of the vote in December depends on one thing: Will the media and debates be focused on the primary issues facing the nation, or will it be muddied by extremely personal, religious and racial attacks on Obama. On the issues (Iraq,Iran,taxes, energy policies,global warming, foreclosures, the overall econmy, etc.), Obama should emerge as the decisive winner. The big question is whether the lower and middle class Whites who voted overwhelmingly for Hillary in the primaries, will resort to being Reagan Democrats and vote for McCain rather than a Black candidate. I say this, because as distasteful as it is to say this, many of Hillary's supporters in Pennsylvania and West Virginia seem willing to go against their own self-interest, rather than vote for a Black man.

Only the strongest support of Hillary for Obama has the chance of overcoming this predilection, which could restore the Republicans to another 4 years of power.