A surprising shift ocurred over the last few months in the issues that Americans believe are most important in this election. Despite the opinion of 2/3 of all Americans that the war in Iraq is a mistake and should be ended, this is no longer the dominant concern of US voters. Illegal immigration and creating a safe border with Mexico has now emerged as the primary focus of voter concern.
Thanks to the dogged criticism and revelations of Lou Dobbs and Glenn Beck on CNN, a majority of Americans of all political stripes are now convinced that the US must finally close and secure the border with Mexico and prevent the movement of drugs, people and perhaps terrorists over what has been a wide open frontier. In fact, they were so incensed by the recent attempt of President Bush, Teddy Kennedy and John McCain to pass what came to be called "Amnesty" legislation for illegals already in the country, that public opinion forced an early and decisive defeat of the bill.
It has seemed clear to me for some time that the winner of this presidential election will have to take a very strong stand on securing the border with Mexico and preventing the drug traffic and the wholesale violence it breeds. Border towns on both sides are awash in drug-related violence, and the Laredo area has witnessed over 70 kidnappings of American citizens over the past 2 years, none of them solved or found. (See the film "No Country for Old Men," a great movie touching this issue)
The issue is more problematic for Democrats than for Republicans, in spite of the President's toleration of the status quo. Both Obamba and Hillary stumbled badly in November in supporting the NY State governor's proposal to grant drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants. Attacked by his own Democratic party members, the governor withdrew the legislation. Many democrats, independents and republicans are incensed over the costs taxpayers bear for the education, medical care, tax-free incomes and other financial benefits many states afford illegals. The high crime rate among this group, and the fact that in California alone over 50% of the prison population are illegal immigrants compounds the anger.
Among the leading candidates, Mitt Romney has taken the strongest stand on stopping illegal immigration and securing the border. Once the primaries are over, you will see this issue mushroom into one of the defining issues of the 2008 elections. And if the recession that looks increasingly likely comes into play, the war in Iraq may slip further down the list of issues that will dominate this election.
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5 comments:
Hello Mr. Broman, Interesting point with respect to immigration and the general shift in the focus of the average American voter. I am wondering if over the course of the next few months whether we will see yet another shift of priorities. In this case with a concern on the economy. My belief is that the issues surrounding the sub-prime mortgages are the tip of the iceberg. (Even with the possible 5 year freeze on rate hikes for owners.) Prior to the housing bubble bursting, many people had the illusion of wealth based on the ever-increasing value of their homes. With that in mind, several have already over extended themselves and now face the fact that their supposed wealth was on paper only and their accumulated debt is quite real. Typically, many of these people will have also over extended themselves with purchases made on credit cards. (A lack of fiscal responsibility has a way of getting away from oneself.) Once the holiday season is over we are likely to see many people defualting on credit card payments as well as mortgages. This on top of the current mortgage issues and other economic pressures are likely to create a level of pain that cannot be ignored.
I believe that a successful candidate will need to be able to articulate a clear problem statement and offer a sensible solution to our economic morass, as well as immigration and our foreign policy.
I will not be holding my breath for such a person to emerge for this less than compelling troope of candidates.
Your former student from WBAISIII
Dan Kurschner
I agree with Dan about the economic bubble bursting, and it's not just the subprime rate. it's the price of fuel.
Plus the debt, as I believe India, Brazil and China are on the rise, and US on the decline.
Look at our imports, they far outweigh the exports. Hence our status as a debtor nation. The dollar is also on the decline, I was in BKK, and it fell from 38 baht to 33 and probably falling furhter.
i don't like the feeling of paranoia over immigrants and scapegoating minorities. was surprised to see Dr. Broman's harsh opinion on illegal immigrants.
I say increase the number of legal immigrants and tax these new workers instead of exploiting them.
I'm with Bush in that. Opposed to the rest of his foreign policy, and we never should have invaded Afganistan or Iraq.
and... now that we're in, irresponsible to withdraw, after destroying the Iraqi infrastructure.
Poom
Class of 82
WBAIS
Mr. Broman,
I'm a former AIS student who moved to the US in 1990. I am in law school now, but I worked as a newspaper reporter before matriculating, and I covered a good deal of politics. I, too, thought the immigration issue would be determinative in some of the races I covered (particularly the 2005 governor's race in Virginia, where immigration arouses much passion), but it was not: the candidates with the least punitive positions won easily.
My conclusion is this: there is a very vocal minority that cares about immigration above all else, but their bark is louder than their bite. Most folks know that immigrant labor is crucial to economic growth, and others aren't as swayed by nativist arguments.
Just my two cents ...
Best,
Samson (or Shimshon)
Dan As you speak the latest poll in Iowa finds that economic concerns are now the number one concern and issue in this election year. You are right on target, and any serious effort to mitigate the colossal and exploding debt of our nation will not be easy. There will be a need for sacrifices on many levels and it is not at all clear that Americccept this.
Hi Mr. Broman,
First thank you for your reply. Indeed, the emerging economic situation will be difficult to solve. Like so many problems, there are more than a single cause (as "poom" pointed out and even more so than that). As such, the solution will also needs to be a carefully orchestrated and layered effort. Since we do live in a global economy, we will need to manage this recovery plan with other major economic players (EU, China, etc) around the world. While the cure is likely to be painful, it is in no way worse than what we will feel if we misstep or simply fail to see the reality of the situation and not work together. My concern now is that dealing with reality is often not popular, and unfortunately in our "instant gratification" society that we have today, unpopular remedies are difficult to get committed and executed.
Cheers and Happy Holidays.
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